🔗 Share this article Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Figures The mean count of daily homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. However, public safety experts have warned that murder figures may not indicate enhanced countrywide safety. Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday. “The figures in killings that we have seen over these months is very significant,” the President stated, explaining that in November the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade. Recent Context and Official Plan Violent cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data office. That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security approach for an seemingly sharper decline in killings in the current year. At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.” The central components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include: Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard. Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities. Greater coordination between various authorities. Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations But, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “This would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.” According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%. “Statistics on murders is no longer useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings. “Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said. Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized. “Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas. Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger However despite these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months. Weeks after, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and narco-violence. “The government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.
The mean count of daily homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. However, public safety experts have warned that murder figures may not indicate enhanced countrywide safety. Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday. “The figures in killings that we have seen over these months is very significant,” the President stated, explaining that in November the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade. Recent Context and Official Plan Violent cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data office. That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security approach for an seemingly sharper decline in killings in the current year. At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.” The central components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include: Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard. Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities. Greater coordination between various authorities. Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations But, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “This would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.” According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%. “Statistics on murders is no longer useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.” Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings. “Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said. Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized. “Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas. Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger However despite these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months. Weeks after, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and narco-violence. “The government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.