Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
