Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
