🔗 Share this article

Initially, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious consequences" last August if Putin carried on obstructing ceasefire talks, Trump eventually introduced major sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially impacted Putin's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, he has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Aggression

This proposal would in practice benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan in reality undermine that same autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump seems to treat the war as a simple border issue, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will appease the ruler. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a damaged area of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to destroy it so it stops serves as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his increasing autocracy prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in position the already divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with area that its military have been unable to capture in more than a ten years of warfare, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that are a essential obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital should he subsequently decide to renew the conflict.

Military Limitations

Then, in a step that would make future hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would mandate the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan sets no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate administration as extremists, the proposal asserts: "All Nazi belief system and activities must be condemned and forbidden." As if to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has violated similar treaties in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of occupied territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on western security guarantees. While the plan threatens a "immediate joint defense action" should the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details include unclear to concerning. The plan would not just deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying troops on the nation's land, effectively preventing the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his reduced forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would grant the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react with force to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not